Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eba…6856 sports 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%22W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
other 24% −$4
politics 21% −$3
crypto 8% −$1
economics 7% +$1
world 5% +$2
culture 4% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 3 +1.1% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 183 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses22 / 161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage161d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $128 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 18 $44 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $73 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $36 $0 -1%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $84 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 07 $48 $0 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $175 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 SELL No 97¢ $38 12d
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 BUY No 97¢ $38 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 24d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $38 37d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $38 37d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $39 94d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 94d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $37 94d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $37 94d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $32 94d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $32 94d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $43 94d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $43 94d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $40 94d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $40 95d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 95d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $43 95d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $36 95d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $36 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $44 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $44 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $37 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $38 96d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $31 96d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $31 96d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL No 95¢ $35 96d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY No 96¢ $36 96d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $39 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.00 · official $36.00 (match) · 772 history records