Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ebb…5d52 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$7
tech 17% −$1
other 13% −$1
sports 3% −$1
economics 2% −$3
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -1.5% -10.9% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -1.5% -10.9% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage86d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $6 −$1 -11%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting Apr 17 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Seri Apr 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 16 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $191 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $55 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 26 $158 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,128 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,109 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,079 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $789 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $299 2h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,090 2h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 36h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $19 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $19 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $762 37h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $292 39h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 39h
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $5 62d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $6 62d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL No $9 62d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL No $1 62d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting BUY No $13 62d
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Seri SELL No 95¢ $189 63d
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Seri BUY No 95¢ $189 63d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $189 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records