Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ec2…4035 crypto 498 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,047 (-7%) realized −$848 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%225W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$100
14 days−$125
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$1,266
sports 8% −$282
other 8% −$330
finance 0% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +76.3% +59.5% 42% 42% -15.5%
≤30d 23 +52.1% +37.6% 39% 35% -16.9%
≤90d 187 -2.9% -12.1% 51% 33% -14.2%
all 493 -17.0% -24.9% 46% 31% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 31% -21.8%
10% -32.1% 20% -29.3%
15% -38.6% 16% -36.2%
20% -44.7% 11% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses225 / 268
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)493 / 498
History coverage128d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-99%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$59 +450%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $83 −$81 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$89 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $178 +$81 +45%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $383 −$239 -63%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $199 −$171 -86%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $82 −$75 -92%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o Jun 15 $26 +$227 +883%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$140 +249%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$84 +408%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +118%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$86 +171%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$66 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $167 −$163 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 21 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 17 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 17 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 17 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 +$32 +240%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $69 +$15 +22%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy end in a draw? Mar 31 $53 +$20 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $33 +$22 +65%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $37 −$23 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 31 $13 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 31 $6 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$3 -65%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $19 −$11 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 28 $8 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 28 $33 −$17 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 28 $25 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 28 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 28 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 28 $20 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 28 $25 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 28 $19 +$16 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $13 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $133 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $38 24h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $78 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $15 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $258 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $26 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $151 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 30¢ $143 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 8¢ $28 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 3¢ $7 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $82 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $199 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $383 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $104 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.84 (match) · 2487 history records