Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ec7…ab82 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-8%) realized −$37 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day177.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$59
finance 8% −$7
politics 3% −$1
other 2% +$2
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.1% -25.9% 15% 15% -24.7%
≤30d 26 -18.1% -25.9% 15% 15% -24.7%
≤90d 26 -18.1% -25.9% 15% 15% -24.7%
all 26 -18.1% -25.9% 15% 15% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover177.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 15% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 12% -31.9%
15% -39.5% 4% -38.5%
20% -45.4% 4% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 22
Open positions11
Markets (closed)26 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day177.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 45¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? SpaceX 89¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 89¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 89¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -21%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $58 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$4 -23%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -41%
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -46%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $22 −$7 -32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 15 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $83 −$25 -30%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 1m
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 51m
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 55m
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 59m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 59m
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? BUY SpaceX 89¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $6 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 10¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 11¢ $5 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $6 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 82¢ $6 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $5 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? SELL No 76¢ $5 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 1h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.35 · official $47.88 (match) · 177 history records