Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3E 0x3eca…357e other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL −$53 (-5%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$10
politics 29% −$30
world 12% −$40
sports 4% +$40
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤30d 3 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 10 +91.7% +73.5% 30% 30% -3.7%
all 37 +36.2% +23.2% 35% 30% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.2% 30% -17.0%
10% +11.4% 27% -24.9%
15% +0.6% 27% -32.2%
20% -9.2% 24% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage600d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 +$14 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $19 −$2 -10%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $11 +$47 +414%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 09 $32 −$21 -65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $20 −$8 -39%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2 +$18 +951%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 02 $2 +$2 +108%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Oct 19 $2 $0 +13%
Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30? Oct 16 $9 −$8 -81%
Macron out in 2025? Feb 26 $4 +$2 +46%
Netanyahu out by 2025? Feb 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr? Feb 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 29 $7 −$3 -44%
Democrats win popular vote by 4-5%? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December? Dec 04 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 22 $148 −$69 -46%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $34 +$24 +72%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $5 +$17 +341%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 10 $39 +$52 +133%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Nov 09 $41 −$2 -6%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 07 $3 +$23 +775%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Nov 07 $3 +$12 +400%
Will Joe Rogan announce he is voting for Trump? Nov 05 $57 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $17 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $19 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 15d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $11 49d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 49d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 80d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 58¢ $12 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 80d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 80d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 236d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 236d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 251d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 251d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 253d
Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 253d
Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 282d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 282d
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 486d
Macron out in 2025? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 486d
Netanyahu out by 2025? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 486d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 538d
Netanyahu out by 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 538d
Macron out in 2025? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 538d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.98 · official $329.98 (match) · 99 history records