Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3ecc…1d30 politics 350 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,889 (-5%) realized −$6,668 · open −$1,221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate70%238W / 104L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$6,133
world 26% +$758
other 21% +$985
sports 15% −$5,794
crypto 1% −$1,836
culture 1% −$124
economics 1% −$8
tech 0% +$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 34% -27.0%
≤30d 149 +22.2% +10.6% 71% 34% -20.2%
≤90d 342 +16.8% +5.6% 70% 42% -16.1%
all 342 +16.8% +5.6% 70% 42% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 42% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -4.5% 28% -24.1%
15% -13.7% 19% -31.4%
20% -22.2% 13% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$243 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$3,644
Realized−$6,668
Unrealized−$1,221
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses238 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions8
Markets (closed)342 / 350
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$435
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 73¢ 51¢ $2,931 $2,047 −$883 (-30%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 89¢ 56¢ $1,413 $878 −$536 (-38%)
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 95¢ $208 $530 +$322 (+155%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 59¢ 50¢ $99 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $37 $6 −$30 (-82%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $68 $2 −$66 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $102 −$97 -96%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $2,258 −$1,816 -80%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $829 −$782 -94%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $1,403 +$243 +17%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $749 +$205 +27%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $89 +$26 +29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,967 +$24 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $926 +$93 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,122 +$135 +6%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $22 +$7 +31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 −$55 -54%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,913 +$87 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $455 +$34 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2,796 +$174 +6%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 20 $424 +$30 +7%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$4 +16%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 20 $213 +$50 +23%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 20 $1,124 +$67 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $6,971 −$6,960 -100%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 20 $310 +$22 +7%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $170 −$170 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 20 $241 +$7 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,933 +$67 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $59 +$8 +14%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $785 −$785 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 17, 2026? Jun 20 $59 +$3 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $490 +$70 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $802 −$502 -63%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $96 +$4 +4%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 19 $96 +$3 +3%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +18%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $145 +$5 +3%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $898 −$898 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,640 +$360 +14%
Will Camilo Vargas be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will James Rodríguez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $458 −$194 -42%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $579 +$193 +33%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $1,799 −$765 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $2,027 +$41 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$34 -94%
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 17 $39 −$7 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 96¢ $34 46m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 97¢ $97 46m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 1¢ $5 50m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 99¢ $40 52m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 1¢ $0 53m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 98¢ $30 55m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 98¢ $29 55m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 98¢ $24 55m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 98¢ $106 55m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 98¢ $7 56m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $23 57m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $80 57m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $92 57m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $73 57m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $98 58m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $24 58m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 98¢ $12 59m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $463 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 98¢ $24 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 96¢ $93 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 96¢ $3 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 88¢ $6 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 86¢ $9 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 85¢ $172 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 81¢ $0 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 86¢ $8 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 84¢ $504 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 83¢ $111 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,643.73 · official $3,643.73 (match) · 3500 history records