Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ed0…ee54 crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$327 (-5%) realized −$327 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate78%84W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$329
politics 6% −$1
other 4% −$2
crypto 3% +$6
world 0% −$2
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 -22.0% -29.4% 73% 7% -66.6%
all 108 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 25% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 25% -13.9%
10% -18.6% 13% -22.1%
15% -26.5% 9% -29.7%
20% -33.7% 6% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses84 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage589d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $112 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 02 $13 −$7 -55%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 02 $105 +$3 +3%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 23 $5 $0 +5%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 23 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 23 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets Mar 25 $564 −$564 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $251 +$251 +100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.03 in December? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in December? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.08 in December? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in December? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +22%
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +30%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Nov 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 06 $5,002 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $114 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $112 35d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 43d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $105 50d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 89¢ $38 83d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 89¢ $23 83d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $5 85d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 88d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $251 118d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 135d
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 55¢ $564 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 168d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.03 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.08 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $1 168d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.76 · official $113.76 (match) · 226 history records