Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ed4…17d1 crypto 1458 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-0%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%1304W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$19
14 days−$9
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$22
weather 33% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 +1.1% -8.6% 92% 4% -9.2%
≤30d 507 +0.4% -9.1% 95% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 1457 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 4% -9.6%
all 1457 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 4% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1304 / 153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1457 / 1458
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +266%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 12m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 18m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 41m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 44m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.78 · official $14.78 (match) · 3500 history records