Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ed9…7974 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$7
other 13% −$5
politics 5% +$2
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 5% -10.5%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 5% -10.5%
all 50 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -19.2% 2% -19.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage459d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $93 −$5 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $39 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $13 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 01 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $5 +$1 +30%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $35 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $36 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $16 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $20 34h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 82¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $33 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $33 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $34 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records