Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee1…f616 sports 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,835 (-9%) realized −$3,835 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%160W / 197L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$395
7 days−$395
14 days−$395
30 days−$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$3,344
crypto 23% −$909
other 0% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -38.9% -44.8% 33% 33% -45.1%
≤30d 27 -38.9% -44.8% 33% 33% -45.1%
≤90d 99 -10.5% -19.0% 43% 41% -38.9%
all 357 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 43% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 43% -18.3%
10% -21.9% 41% -26.1%
15% -29.5% 36% -33.2%
20% -36.4% 30% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$104 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,835
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses160 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)357 / 358
History coverage128d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 357 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$21 +69%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $31 +$39 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$17 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$27 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$24 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$32 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$29 +56%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$18 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 08 $16 +$8 +48%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 08 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 08 $35 +$16 +47%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 08 $14 −$10 -71%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 4 Winner May 07 $13 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 07 $62 +$53 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 06 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner May 06 $95 +$143 +150%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso May 06 $292 −$11 -4%
LoL: Barça eSports vs GIANTX iTero - Game 2 Winner May 06 $131 +$68 +52%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner May 06 $65 +$69 +105%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner May 06 $80 +$65 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha May 06 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 06 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis - Game 2 Winner May 06 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner May 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 06 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner May 06 $94 −$94 -100%
LoL: BIG vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - Prime League 1st Div May 06 $231 −$231 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $19 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 37m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 39m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 39m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 39m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1922 history records