Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3ee4…565c sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$43
crypto 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 60% 0% -19.9%
≤30d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 60% 0% -19.9%
≤90d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 60% 0% -19.9%
all 5 -27.6% -34.5% 60% 0% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 0% -19.9%
10% -40.7% 0% -27.6%
15% -46.5% 0% -34.6%
20% -51.7% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$27 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $70 +$4 +6%
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch Jun 24 $140 −$3 -2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $100 −$51 -50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 24 $94 +$3 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 94¢ $70 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $70 1h
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch SELL Dali Blanch 92¢ $135 1h
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 94¢ $140 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin SELL Oceane Dodin 46¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant SELL Tyra Caterina Grant 100¢ $97 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Oceane Dodin 91¢ $100 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen SELL Iryna Shymanovich 100¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 97¢ $94 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $94 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen BUY Iryna Shymanovich 98¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen BUY Iryna Shymanovich 96¢ $66 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $95 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.65 · official $145.65 (match) · 13 history records