Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee5…4aa0 crypto 686 markets active 5d ago coverage 16d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$607 (-17%) realized −$607 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%546W / 504L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 -76.3% -78.6% 19% 19% -83.4%
≤30d 1050 -36.4% -42.5% 52% 44% -49.3%
≤90d 1050 -36.4% -42.5% 52% 44% -49.3%
all 1050 -36.4% -42.5% 52% 44% -49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 44% -49.3%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 23% -54.1%
15% -53.0% 4% -58.6%
20% -57.6% 1% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$607
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses546 / 504
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1050 / 686
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1050 Trades
no open positions (499 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.41 · official $7.41 (match) · 3500 history records