Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3ee5…7bf0 crypto 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24,120 (+22%) realized +$23,333 · open +$787
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 57L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,141per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$24,142
world 6% −$214
other 4% −$1,206
economics 3% +$243
politics 2% +$175
tech 1% −$219
sports 1% −$37
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -28.9% -35.7% 0% 0% -24.7%
≤90d 6 -42.1% -47.6% 0% 0% -26.8%
all 95 -9.9% -18.5% 40% 27% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 27% +10.4%
10% -26.3% 21% -0.2%
15% -33.4% 14% -9.8%
20% -39.9% 13% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$822) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$762 vs −$120 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.23 per $1 lost it wins $4.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$4,526
Realized+$23,333
Unrealized+$787
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage611d
Avg bet$1,141
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 94¢ $2,380 $3,139 +$759 (+32%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 53¢ 53¢ $1,059 $1,063 +$4 (+0%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 50¢ 54¢ $300 $324 +$24 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $103 −$65 -63%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 06 $1,019 −$154 -15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $520 −$48 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $68 −$19 -28%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 12 $52 −$36 -68%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Apr 12 $30 −$21 -69%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 07 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Mar 03 $59 +$14 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $380 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $1,024 +$264 +26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February? Feb 02 $141 −$33 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,255 −$16 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 29 $3,499 −$230 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 29 $2,222 +$445 +20%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Jan 19 $3,009 −$291 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 19 $199 −$110 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 18 $1,417 +$759 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $29,344 +$7,521 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $1,402 −$96 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $406 −$97 -24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO5) Dec 07 $822 +$50 +6%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Dec 05 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 03 $448 +$201 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 26 $358 −$27 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 22 $8,583 +$11,166 +130%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $1,614 +$1,197 +74%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 17 $732 +$181 +25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Nov 14 $301 +$279 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November? Nov 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November? Nov 14 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 14 $354 −$18 -5%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Nov 07 $1,596 +$1,978 +124%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? Nov 04 $356 +$565 +159%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 04 $110 −$60 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 21 $450 +$599 +133%
Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October? Oct 16 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1? Oct 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Oct 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in July? Oct 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 27? Oct 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 14 $81 −$20 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $6,988 +$386 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 11 $865 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 07 $199 −$8 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October? Oct 06 $195 +$11 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $708 −$163 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $255 1h
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $306 1h
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $824 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,501 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 6¢ $38 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 46¢ $433 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 46¢ $433 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $375 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1,766 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL Yes 7¢ $49 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 8¢ $68 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $699 32d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 36d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,019 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2,738 36d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 71d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 71d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $52 108d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $44 109d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 109d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $74 112d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $59 115d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $59 115d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $27 116d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $54 116d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $132 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $190 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $300 128d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,525.68 · official $4,525.69 (match) · 613 history records