Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3ee7…f36e sports 879 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$178 (+0%) realized +$180 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate79%693W / 184L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$387est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$431
7 days−$829
14 days+$42
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$180
other 10% +$193
weather 1% −$43
crypto 1% −$93
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.6% -20.0% 61% 50% -27.2%
≤30d 147 +5.0% -5.0% 69% 63% -8.8%
≤90d 877 +1.5% -8.2% 79% 53% -9.6%
all 877 +1.5% -8.2% 79% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 53% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 24% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 14% -26.2%
20% -32.3% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$71 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses693 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$387
Open positions2
Markets (closed)877 / 879
History coverage70d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 877 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 80¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 52¢ $93 $87 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $503 −$431 -86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$17 -17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $92 +$28 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $101 −$99 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$93 -92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 +$85 +56%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $101 +$20 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$74 -74%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 +$139 +69%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $131 +$34 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $105 +$44 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$37 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $101 +$28 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $154 −$152 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $73 −$71 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $112 +$154 +138%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $101 +$78 +77%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $101 +$21 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $101 −$69 -68%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $101 +$29 +29%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $122 +$88 +72%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $101 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $94 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 12¢ $71 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 82¢ $503 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $86 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $92 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Curaçao 1¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 6¢ $7 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 6¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 80¢ $101 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $23 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 67¢ $50 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 83¢ $101 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.14 · official $191.14 (match) · 1805 history records