Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee8…a445 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$99 (-22%) realized −$87 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -51.9% -56.5% 28% 22% -44.0%
≤30d 18 -51.9% -56.5% 28% 22% -44.0%
≤90d 18 -51.9% -56.5% 28% 22% -44.0%
all 18 -51.9% -56.5% 28% 22% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.5% 22% -44.0%
10% ← realistic here -60.6% 6% -49.4%
15% -64.4% 0% -54.3%
20% -67.9% 0% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 53¢ 20¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $42 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $23 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $24 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $13 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.74 · official $9.62 · 49 history records