Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eec…8f96 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,620 (-14%) realized −$2,615 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1,739
sports 33% −$724
politics 6% −$212
crypto 1% +$12
tech 0% −$26
world 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -19.4%
≤30d 13 -37.8% -43.7% 31% 23% -19.0%
≤90d 33 -31.5% -38.1% 36% 24% -20.2%
all 88 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 20% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 20% -22.8%
10% -36.3% 15% -30.2%
15% -42.5% 11% -36.9%
20% -48.1% 8% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$92 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$2,615
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage500d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 35¢ 34¢ $169 $164 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $439 −$48 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $180 +$71 +39%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $35 −$35 -99%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $304 −$295 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,535 +$21 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus May 30 $3 −$1 -21%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $102 −$82 -80%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $259 +$179 +69%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $450 −$29 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $32 +$6 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $105 +$95 +91%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 20 $3 $0 -1%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Trump say "Trump Card" or "Trump Gold Card" in May? May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 19 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Danilo Barbosa da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 Wor May 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 19 $451 +$41 +9%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $3,441 +$270 +8%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? May 18 $397 −$397 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? Apr 18 $622 −$226 -36%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 06 $350 +$398 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (Lightweight, Main Apr 05 $302 −$302 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Apr 05 $619 −$471 -76%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $397 +$338 +85%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $220 +$84 +38%
Spread: Cuiabá EC (-2.5) Mar 26 $510 −$95 -19%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $140 −$140 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 23 $400 −$400 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 22 $500 +$27 +6%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5) Mar 21 $205 +$20 +10%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Mar 20 $500 −$10 -2%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 20 $350 +$82 +24%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $336 −$336 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $494 +$304 +62%
Nets vs. Knicks Mar 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $303 +$34 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Feb 09 $49 +$65 +132%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Feb 09 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 09 $43 +$8 +18%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 17 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 35¢ $173 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $165 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 97¢ $101 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 97¢ $111 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 97¢ $35 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 69¢ $180 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 53¢ $35 24d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 70¢ $1 24d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 70¢ $1 24d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 70¢ $3 24d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 60¢ $304 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $334 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 24d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus SELL No 21¢ $2 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $51 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Moise Kouame $20 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Moise Kouame 45¢ $102 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 92¢ $299 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 20¢ $15 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 40¢ $102 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 20¢ $36 25d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 18¢ $51 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 17¢ $32 25d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $91 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 35¢ $103 26d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.48 · official $164.48 (match) · 351 history records