trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 0% | 0% | -19.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 67% | 33% | -4.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 75% | 25% | -3.2% |
| all | 11 | +7.8% | -2.4% | 73% | 45% | +5.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -2.4% | 45% | +5.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -11.8% | 27% | -5.0% |
| 15% | -20.3% | 27% | -14.2% |
| 20% | -28.1% | 18% | -22.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 24 | $2,115 | −$235 | -11% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $6,303 | +$773 | +12% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $535 | +$5 | +1% |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 18 | $4,484 | +$389 | +9% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Dec 14 | $1,614 | +$932 | +58% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Dec 12 | $1,688 | +$230 | +14% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Dec 12 | $401 | +$189 | +47% |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? | Dec 12 | $5,065 | +$347 | +7% |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Dec 09 | $1,773 | −$1,074 | -61% |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? | Nov 25 | $966 | +$1,450 | +150% |
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner | Nov 17 | $29 | −$20 | -67% |