Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3eef…4461 other 11 markets active 9h ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,006 (+12%) realized +$3,006 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$2,270per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$235
14 days+$538
30 days+$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,007
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -19.6%
≤30d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 33% -4.0%
≤90d 4 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 25% -3.2%
all 11 +7.8% -2.4% 73% 45% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 45% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 27% -5.0%
15% -20.3% 27% -14.2%
20% -28.1% 18% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
46.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$539 vs −$443 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,006
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage226d
Avg bet$2,270
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2,115 −$235 -11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6,303 +$773 +12%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $535 +$5 +1%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 18 $4,484 +$389 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 14 $1,614 +$932 +58%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 12 $1,688 +$230 +14%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 12 $401 +$189 +47%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? Dec 12 $5,065 +$347 +7%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 09 $1,773 −$1,074 -61%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $966 +$1,450 +150%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Nov 17 $29 −$20 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $940 8h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $940 8h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 716 history records