Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3E 0x3ef0…fcf7 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$788 (-15%) realized −$788 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,906
7 days−$1,906
14 days−$1,906
30 days−$1,906
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,288
other 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.6% -68.0% 25% 25% -69.4%
≤30d 4 -64.6% -68.0% 25% 25% -69.4%
≤90d 13 -39.4% -45.2% 46% 23% -50.1%
all 13 -39.4% -45.2% 46% 23% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.2% 23% -50.1%
10% -50.4% 23% -54.9%
15% -55.2% 23% -59.3%
20% -59.6% 8% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$459 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage44d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $703 −$688 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 20 $970 −$952 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 20 $687 +$286 +42%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 19 $561 −$551 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 07 $347 −$340 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 07 $610 −$600 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 May 07 $542 +$417 +77%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 06 $388 +$153 +40%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) May 06 $364 +$14 +4%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) May 06 $9 $0 +4%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $8 +$1 +9%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $61 −$53 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 27¢ $703 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $970 3h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $687 4h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 37¢ $560 6h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 37¢ $1 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $347 44d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $203 44d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $407 44d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $958 44d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 44d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $540 44d
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $541 44d
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 71¢ $388 44d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $379 44d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $10 44d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) BUY San Diego Padres 96¢ $9 44d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 44d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 96¢ $364 44d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 44d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes $8 44d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 44d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $27 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records