Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ef3…1a52 crypto 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18,085 (-21%) realized −$18,085 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,244per market
Trades / day156.1pace
Fees−$1,090est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$27,210
crypto 18% +$10,911
other 4% +$9,792
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +51.1% +36.7% 75% 75% -22.2%
≤30d 12 +51.1% +36.7% 75% 75% -22.2%
≤90d 12 +51.1% +36.7% 75% 75% -22.2%
all 12 +51.1% +36.7% 75% 75% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.7% 75% -22.2%
10% +23.6% 75% -29.7%
15% ← realistic here +11.7% 75% -36.5%
20% +0.7% 75% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
33.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,529 vs −$9,757 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18,085
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1,090
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7,244
Trades / day156.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $1,543 −$1,487 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $880 +$663 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $488 +$392 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $256 +$232 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $594 −$574 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $335 +$261 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $222 +$113 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $138 +$81 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$60 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $67,725 −$27,210 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,190 +$9,792 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $11,480 +$11,170 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $880 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $663 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $838 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $881 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $209 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $279 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $488 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $256 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $594 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $335 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $222 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $138 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $80 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $27,622 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 53¢ $27,633 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $40,102 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $12,982 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $3,190 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22,650 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $350 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $89 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 419 history records