Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ef3…0740 crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$65
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$37
other 10% −$44
sports 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +5.8% -4.3% 38% 26% -14.9%
≤30d 72 +5.8% -4.3% 38% 26% -14.9%
≤90d 72 +5.8% -4.3% 38% 26% -14.9%
all 72 +5.8% -4.3% 38% 26% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 26% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 19% -23.1%
15% -21.8% 19% -30.5%
20% -29.5% 18% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $75 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $101 −$48 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $77 −$23 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$42 +414%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +344%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records