Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ef4…4d46 other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$722 (+0%) realized +$722 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%36W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,646per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$33
14 days−$212
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$159
other 35% −$141
sports 16% +$974
economics 2% −$9
culture 2% −$8
world 2% −$4
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 -5.5% -14.5% 11% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 121 -7.1% -15.9% 8% 5% -9.5%
all 170 -1.4% -10.8% 21% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 10% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 9% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 8% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,518) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$8 · ×6.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$722
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses36 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,646
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,949 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,129 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,955 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,813 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,174 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $161 +$3 +2%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,745 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $4,934 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,153 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,250 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $2,237 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $4,779 −$7 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,184 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,570 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,829 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,772 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $84 +$52 +62%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $130 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,286 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $3,695 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $3,165 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $4,674 −$6 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $4,161 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,981 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $3,498 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $86 +$41 +48%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $63 +$59 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $934 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $935 3h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 25h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 26h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 27h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 27h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $934 27h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $935 28h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,169 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,170 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,176 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,177 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,172 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,174 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $946 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $948 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $902 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $903 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,019 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,020 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $923 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $924 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 617 history records