Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ef9…71cf sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%32W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 27% +$27
other 23% +$20
sports 21% −$33
economics 16% +$7
crypto 7% +$7
world 4% +$1
politics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +1.1% -8.6% 93% 7% -8.8%
all 41 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 24% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 24% -9.3%
10% -20.9% 20% -18.0%
15% -28.6% 15% -25.9%
20% -35.6% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$56 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses32 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage168d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 26 $903 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 23 $691 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $446 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 03 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 26 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 23 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 16 $305 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 16 $138 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 14 $281 +$10 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $396 +$4 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $97 +$3 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $290 +$5 +2%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 07 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 28 $399 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $114 −$114 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 23 $980 +$9 +1%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 19 $161 +$59 +37%
Nets vs. Pistons Mar 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Heat vs. Kings Mar 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Rockets vs. 76ers Mar 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Mar 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Mar 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Mar 18 $180 +$20 +11%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 16 $1,178 +$2 +0%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $1,362 +$8 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $8 +$3 +38%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Feb 22 $648 +$1 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 16 $40 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 09 $114 +$36 +32%
Pelicans vs. Bucks Feb 05 $57 +$93 +163%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 29 $374 +$2 +0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $438 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jan 25 $150 +$150 +100%
Wizards vs. Kings Jan 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 15 $195 +$3 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jan 12 $225 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $459 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $134 15h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $71 21h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $244 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $9 24h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $312 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $120 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $298 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $261 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $87 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $211 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $50 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $442 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $445 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $447 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 22d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $295 23d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL Yes $8 30d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL Yes $2 30d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY Yes $10 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL Yes $5 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL Yes $1 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL Yes $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records