Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3efb…f855 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%24W / 21L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
other 16% −$7
crypto 16% +$4
sports 13% +$26
politics 13% −$9
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 0% -9.3%
all 45 +3.4% -6.5% 53% 7% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 7% -8.1%
10% -15.4% 4% -16.9%
15% -23.6% 4% -25.0%
20% -31.1% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage471d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $78 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $15 −$1 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 08 $6 $0 -7%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 07 $22 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $31 $0 +0%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Mar 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $1 +$1 +92%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 25 $2 $0 +14%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $41 −$8 -20%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? Mar 13 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $41 +$1 +4%
Will Michael Saylor attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $41 $0 +1%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 06 $15 +$26 +178%
USC Upstate vs. Gardner Webb Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $24 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $21 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $7 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $22 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $11 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $40 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $25 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $15 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $23 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $11 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $34 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $44 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $6 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $7 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $12 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $23 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.66 · official $40.66 (match) · 151 history records