Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eff…7886 crypto 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (182 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%48W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day182.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$23
sports 8% −$25
other 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (182 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -19.6% -27.2% 48% 43% -18.1%
≤30d 100 -19.6% -27.2% 48% 43% -18.1%
≤90d 100 -19.6% -27.2% 48% 43% -18.1%
all 100 -19.6% -27.2% 48% 43% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 43% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 34% -25.9%
15% -40.6% 23% -33.1%
20% -46.4% 20% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses48 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day182.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$10 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$9 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $2.44 (match) · 371 history records