Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f05…85c5 sports 464 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$541 (-1%) realized −$541 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%294W / 170L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$599est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$279
14 days+$150
30 days−$1,984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,219
other 0% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.4% +4.4% 71% 71% +33.9%
≤30d 52 -12.2% -20.5% 58% 54% -25.7%
≤90d 309 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 58% -13.7%
all 464 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 58% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 58% -10.7%
10% -16.8% 52% -19.3%
15% -24.8% 42% -27.1%
20% -32.2% 27% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$159 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses294 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$599
Open positions0
Markets (closed)464 / 464
History coverage153d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 464 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $101 +$164 +163%
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Giovanni Oradini Jun 27 $120 +$30 +25%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $49 +$20 +40%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $100 +$65 +64%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $184 +$30 +16%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $97 +$33 +34%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $360 −$360 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $40 −$36 -91%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $527 −$527 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $38 +$21 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $136 −$136 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $223 −$223 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $117 +$12 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $51 +$15 +30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $40 +$68 +172%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 31 $198 −$198 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 31 $999 −$792 -79%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 30 $189 +$112 +59%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $520 +$100 +19%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $706 −$57 -8%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner May 30 $185 −$163 -88%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner May 30 $76 +$5 +7%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 30 $194 +$96 +49%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $201 +$87 +43%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $72 +$21 +29%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $337 +$86 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $186 +$57 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $143 +$44 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $180 +$64 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $302 +$77 +26%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $531 −$364 -69%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 29 $497 +$92 +18%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 3 Winner May 29 $197 +$74 +38%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 3 Winner May 29 $370 −$345 -93%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $567 +$128 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $250 +$80 +32%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $328 +$123 +38%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $353 +$173 +49%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $110 +$43 +39%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner May 28 $91 +$18 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 94¢ $265 1h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 35¢ $101 2h
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Giovanni Oradini SELL Giovanni Oradini 100¢ $149 3h
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Giovanni Oradini BUY Giovanni Oradini 75¢ $50 4h
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Giovanni Oradini BUY Giovanni Oradini 83¢ $69 4h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $69 4h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 71¢ $49 5h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 83¢ $15 5h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 100¢ $165 5h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 60¢ $100 7h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY BUY KRX 62¢ $14 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $214 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 86¢ $184 8h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 55¢ $130 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $130 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $97 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 15¢ $137 14d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 28¢ $30 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 4¢ $4 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $40 20d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $59 20d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $38 20d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $360 20d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 61¢ $321 20d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs SELL Team Secret Whales 100¢ $129 20d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 75¢ $205 20d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 61¢ $202 20d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 90¢ $117 20d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Secret Whales 62¢ $223 20d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 42¢ $136 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1121 history records