Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f05…a9b9 sports 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,259 (-14%) realized −$7,027 · open −$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%194W / 139L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$495est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$19
14 days−$22
30 days−$4,764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,321
crypto 14% −$861
other 1% +$291
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.2% -30.5% 38% 23% -11.8%
≤30d 62 -2.8% -12.1% 48% 39% -44.1%
≤90d 333 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 48% -16.0%
all 333 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 48% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 48% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 39% -24.1%
15% -25.1% 31% -31.4%
20% -32.4% 21% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$93 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,027
Unrealized−$232
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses194 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$495
Open positions1
Markets (closed)333 / 334
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$153
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 59¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $160 −$12 -8%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $5 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $117 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $171 +$24 +14%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $50 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $2 +$1 +31%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -50%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Euro Jun 20 $243 −$27 -11%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 14 $1 +$9 +704%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +116%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $14 +$10 +74%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 07 $17 +$5 +29%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $27 +$11 +43%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Map Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs Ghost Gaming GC (+1.5) Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $15 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 04 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu Jun 03 $16 $0 +3%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $34 −$3 -9%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $282 −$282 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $343 −$80 -23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 01 $82 +$30 +37%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group D May 31 $145 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ May 31 $117 +$83 +72%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 30 $195 +$134 +69%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner May 30 $23 −$22 -95%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 3 Winner May 29 $8 +$2 +25%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 2 Winner May 29 $16 +$8 +49%
Map Handicap: AM (-1.5) vs Falcons Force (+1.5) May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner May 29 $294 −$57 -20%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 29 $27 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Omega (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championshi May 28 $88 −$88 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $26 22m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 92¢ $1 47m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 92¢ $1 48m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 22¢ $1 48m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 22¢ $0 49m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 23¢ $0 50m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 22¢ $0 50m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 23¢ $0 50m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 25¢ $0 50m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 23¢ $0 50m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 24¢ $1 50m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 86¢ $1 50m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 33¢ $0 51m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 39¢ $1 51m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 41¢ $0 51m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 79¢ $0 51m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 81¢ $0 51m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 82¢ $1 52m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 25¢ $1 52m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 87¢ $1 52m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 87¢ $1 53m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 87¢ $1 54m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 85¢ $1 55m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 84¢ $5 55m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 34¢ $0 55m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 82¢ $1 56m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 80¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 26¢ $0 57m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 33¢ $2 58m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $13 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 3500 history records