Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3f0b…a0d9 crypto 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,559 (+1%) realized +$1,469 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate76%277W / 86L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$2,172
finance 7% −$1,891
world 6% +$319
other 3% +$420
tech 1% +$247
economics 0% −$14
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 33% +1.9%
≤30d 104 +9.0% -1.4% 83% 31% -4.8%
≤90d 363 +7.5% -2.7% 76% 36% -11.5%
all 363 +7.5% -2.7% 76% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 36% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 23% -20.0%
15% -20.5% 17% -27.7%
20% -28.3% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$521) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$194 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2,201
Realized+$1,469
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses277 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)363 / 367
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$396
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $1,915 $2,039 +$124 (+6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026? No 16¢ 22¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+39%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $38 $1 −$36 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $331 +$19 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,266 +$190 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $229 +$21 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $204 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$9 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $112 +$78 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $87 +$42 +48%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $207 +$12 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $23 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $404 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $148 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $369 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $341 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $158 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $394 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$70 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $316 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $299 +$16 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,246 +$51 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $231 +$36 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $238 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $325 +$13 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $353 +$261 +74%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $291 +$93 +32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $928 +$126 +14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $44 −$24 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $824 +$17 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $146 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $405 +$111 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 29 $208 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 29 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 29 $178 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 29 $16 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 29 $113 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 29 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $89 −$5 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $431 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $9 +$21 +220%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $880 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 28 $170 +$230 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $149 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,814 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $223 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 91¢ $229 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $153 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $38 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 94¢ $331 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 8d
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $94 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $71 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $128 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $220 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $67 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $87 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $207 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,200.59 · official $2,200.59 (match) · 3500 history records