Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3f0c…51db sports 1348 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,510 (-5%) realized −$5,551 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%624W / 711L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$1,084est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$331
14 days+$331
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$2,850
crypto 27% −$3,755
other 1% −$903
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +42.5% +28.9% 51% 51% +18.6%
≤30d 116 +4.0% -5.9% 46% 45% -6.4%
≤90d 1277 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 46% -15.4%
all 1335 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 45% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 45% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 43% -23.6%
15% -34.9% 38% -31.0%
20% -41.3% 31% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$74 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$5,551
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses624 / 711
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,084
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1335 / 1348
History coverage97d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 63¢ 100¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs PCIFIC 46¢ 100¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 344 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$56 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$62 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$36 +59%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$60 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$60 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$21 -94%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $48 +$57 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$27 -95%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $21 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corner Jun 23 $21 +$83 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$80 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $38 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $44 −$43 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$41 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $36 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$17 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $39 −$39 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $19 +$21 +109%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $19 −$19 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY PCIFIC 46¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 63¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 18¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 15h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 27¢ $15 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 24¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 39h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ BUY 29¢ $20 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $57 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $93 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 39h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals AND Will Morocco BUY 15¢ $21 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.05 · official $110.57 · 3361 history records