Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f0d…5781 crypto 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$243 (-2%) realized −$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate46%193W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$608
sports 2% −$22
world 0% −$2
other 0% +$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.7% -21.1% 40% 33% -13.1%
≤30d 17 -23.0% -30.3% 35% 29% -13.4%
≤90d 416 -11.4% -19.8% 46% 27% -15.3%
all 416 -11.4% -19.8% 46% 27% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 27% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 16% -23.4%
15% -34.5% 10% -30.8%
20% -40.9% 6% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses193 / 223
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)416 / 416
History coverage54d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 416 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $233 +$96 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $89 −$71 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $234 −$128 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $236 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$231 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$80 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $179 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$16 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$101 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 21 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 21 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 21 $32 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 21 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 20 $50 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 20 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $73 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 20 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $72 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 18 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 18 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 18 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 18 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 18 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 18 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 18 $41 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 18 $42 +$32 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 18 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 18 $32 +$21 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $43 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 18 $21 −$10 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2378 history records