Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3f0f…0e48 sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (424 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11,311 (+6%) realized +$11,342 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate44%55W / 69L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,931per market
Trades / day424.1pace
Fees−$468est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1,680
sports 20% +$529
crypto 8% +$336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (424 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +26.1% +14.1% 44% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 124 +22.0% +10.4% 44% 21% -9.6%
≤90d 124 +22.0% +10.4% 44% 21% -9.6%
all 124 +22.0% +10.4% 44% 21% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover424.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 21% -9.6%
10% -0.2% 14% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -9.8% 11% -26.2%
20% -18.7% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$923) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$113 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized+$11,342
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses55 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$468
Open positions3
Markets (closed)124 / 100
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$1,931
Trades / day424.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 75¢ 100¢ $232 $309 +$77 (+33%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 43¢ 42¢ $249 $243 −$6 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 15 $1,503 −$2,481 -165%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? Jun 15 $27 −$74 -273%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $25 +$66 +265%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $930 −$374 -40%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? Jun 15 $2 −$3 -188%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $7 −$27 -413%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $38 +$70 +186%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $388 −$328 -84%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? Jun 15 $162 −$163 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$50 -797%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LDU de Quito vs. Club Always Ready: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $0 +$39 +273743%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $136 −$140 -104%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +143%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 +$3 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,705 +$113 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $350 +$12 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12,076 +$123 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $135 −$135 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $291 +$23 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $176 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $248 −$245 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15,090 +$483 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5,053 +$620 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $917 −$111 -12%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,745 +$9 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,816 +$10 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9,715 +$542 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$15 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,415 −$316 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $501 +$6 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $119 +$28 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $16 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $1 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 45¢ $196 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $10 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $2 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $7 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $49 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $115 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $15 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $71 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $4 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $16 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $15 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $15 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $1 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $4 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $55 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 46¢ $4 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $204 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $203 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $204 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 43¢ $196 2m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 43¢ $196 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 42¢ $51 8m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $200 8m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $50 8m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $2 9m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $1 9m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $1 9m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $1 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.70 · official $523.14 · 3500 history records