Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f14…fa4c other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-35%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$32
crypto 8% −$10
world 4% −$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -30.3% -37.0% 29% 24% -43.8%
≤30d 17 -30.3% -37.0% 29% 24% -43.8%
≤90d 17 -30.3% -37.0% 29% 24% -43.8%
all 17 -30.3% -37.0% 29% 24% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 24% -43.8%
10% -43.0% 24% -49.1%
15% -48.5% 24% -54.1%
20% -53.6% 24% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.31 · official $8.31 (match) · 27 history records