Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f14…4adb crypto 145 markets active 3h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$219 (+7%) realized +$219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%78W / 67L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days+$151
14 days+$185
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$209
other 4% −$34
sports 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +4.5% -5.5% 64% 44% -4.3%
≤30d 145 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 37% -4.3%
≤90d 145 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 37% -4.3%
all 145 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 37% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 37% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 27% -13.4%
15% -33.2% 23% -21.8%
20% -39.7% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses78 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage11d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $87 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $238 +$22 +9%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$15 +98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$8 -62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$11 -68%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $37 +$8 +20%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$105 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $146 −$139 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $162 −$156 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$113 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$10 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$38 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$65 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$124 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$82 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$38 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$13 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$8 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $36 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 610 history records