Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3F 0x3f17…7035 sports 571 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,127 (+12%) realized +$28,172 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%374W / 193L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$2,746est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$457
7 days+$789
14 days−$6,285
30 days+$7,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$30,407
other 2% −$2,976
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.6% +6.4% 76% 59% +7.2%
≤30d 170 +3.7% -6.2% 64% 59% -2.4%
≤90d 567 +10.8% +0.3% 66% 64% +1.2%
all 567 +10.8% +0.3% 66% 64% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 64% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 58% -8.4%
15% -18.1% 51% -17.3%
20% -26.1% 35% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$275 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized+$28,172
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses374 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$2,746
Open positions4
Markets (closed)567 / 571
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$405
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 63¢ 60¢ $582 $550 −$32 (-6%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $106 +$57 +53%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $368 +$132 +36%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 18 $336 +$143 +43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $253 +$339 +134%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $336 −$59 -18%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $368 −$91 -25%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $336 +$187 +56%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $221 +$129 +59%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $105 +$46 +44%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $286 +$56 +20%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Gatorian (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $56 +$21 +38%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $797 +$48 +6%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends (BO3) - ROG Journey Jun 13 $439 +$31 +7%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $496 −$328 -66%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $495 −$488 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $451 +$305 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $326 −$323 -99%
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 10 $172 −$170 -99%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $2,485 +$592 +24%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $4,466 +$277 +6%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $4,267 +$1,439 +34%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $9,785 +$842 +9%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $548 +$186 +34%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $3,711 +$372 +10%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner Jun 09 $352 −$352 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - 1win Essence Playof Jun 09 $659 −$323 -49%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif Jun 09 $295 −$295 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 09 $442 −$442 -100%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $278 −$278 -100%
Map Handicap: RA (-1.5) vs Ground Zero (+1.5) Jun 09 $345 −$345 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S Jun 09 $1,095 −$653 -60%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 09 $428 −$428 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Jun 09 $460 −$460 -100%
Counter-Strike: 5star vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group Jun 09 $604 −$546 -90%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Project 91 (+1.5) Jun 09 $493 −$493 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Jun 09 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qua Jun 09 $550 −$550 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 09 $613 −$613 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S Jun 09 $516 −$516 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 09 $636 −$636 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S Jun 09 $743 −$743 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi Jun 09 $646 −$646 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 09 $849 −$849 -100%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs MIBR fe (+1.5) Jun 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Map Handicap: ex-Zero Tenacity (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 09 $478 −$478 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 09 $521 −$521 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) SELL TDK 100¢ $163 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $499 1h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 65¢ $46 2h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 65¢ $20 2h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 64¢ $3 2h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 70¢ $4 2h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 64¢ $3 2h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 65¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 73¢ $368 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 100¢ $592 20h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 50¢ $276 20h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 59¢ $336 21h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 42¢ $253 22h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 63¢ $588 22h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Dominion Nation 49¢ $277 24h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 66¢ $54 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ $13 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ $6 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 66¢ $23 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 66¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ $52 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 66¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 61¢ $21 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 61¢ $7 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 61¢ $83 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 61¢ $44 25h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ $33 25h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL INFURITY Gaming 95¢ $432 26h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 75¢ $26 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.29 · official $562.29 (match) · 3500 history records