Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f1f…807a politics 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$11
politics 40% −$13
sports 6% +$14
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 120 -2.5% -11.8% 7% 4% -9.6%
all 130 -3.2% -12.5% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 5% -18.2%
15% -28.5% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage114d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $204 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $405 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $183 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $398 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $212 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $362 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $156 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $178 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $241 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $427 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $27 5h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 11h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 31h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $204 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $204 25d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $202 25d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $202 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 25d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 26d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 351 history records