Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f1f…002d world 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$7
other 24% −$1
politics 16% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.9%
all 41 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage268d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $65 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $97 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $91 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Dec 19 $8 −$5 -60%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $1 $0 +29%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $47 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $29 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $44 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $48 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $48 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $48 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records