Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3F 0x3f21…3bce sports 250 markets active 3d ago coverage 337d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,487 (+56%) realized +$6,673 · open −$186
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%73W / 167L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$38
14 days+$111
30 days+$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$3,000
world 30% +$4,350
other 13% −$892
crypto 1% −$30
politics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -88.2% -89.3% 0% 0% -62.3%
≤30d 54 +6.5% -3.6% 20% 19% +6.3%
≤90d 214 +15.5% +4.5% 25% 24% +42.3%
all 240 +28.5% +16.3% 30% 29% +41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 29% +41.5%
10% +5.2% 26% +27.9%
15% -5.0% 24% +15.6%
20% -14.3% 21% +4.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$22 · ×6.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$6,673
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses73 / 167
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions10
Markets (closed)240 / 250
History coverage337d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $90 −$90 (-50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $18 +$8 (+75%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $16 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 15¢ $75 $5 −$70 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $38 −$11 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $29 −$28 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -95%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $18 +$232 +1310%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $12 −$11 -95%
Andorra vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 May 30 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $24 −$24 -100%
IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 3.5 May 29 $53 +$124 +234%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 3.5 May 29 $37 −$36 -98%
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5 May 25 $35 +$65 +188%
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5) May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $21 −$20 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $266 +$74 +28%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $23 −$22 -98%
D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5 May 24 $26 +$124 +474%
Charlotte FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5 May 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5 May 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $28 −$28 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 22 $90 +$40 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $421 −$25 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $210 −$120 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 20 $38 +$92 +242%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $17 +$83 +474%
Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $8 +$16 +197%
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5) May 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5) May 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw? May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5) May 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5) May 17 $25 +$319 +1290%
Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5) May 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $6 −$6 -98%
D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $27 4d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 7d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $17 8d
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $21 9d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $29 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $8 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 10d
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $18 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 13d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $12 14d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.40 · official $190.40 (match) · 957 history records