Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3F 0x3f29…2814 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$374 (-35%) realized −$374 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$270per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-7.9%	-16.7%	50%	50%	-7.8%
≤30d	4	-7.9%	-16.7%	50%	50%	-7.8%
≤90d	4	-7.9%	-16.7%	50%	50%	-7.8%
all	4	-7.9%	-16.7%	50%	50%	-7.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.7%	50%	-7.8%
10%	-24.6%	50%	-16.7%
15%	-31.9%	50%	-24.7%
20%	-38.6%	50%	-32.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$260 vs −$250 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.04 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$374

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$270

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$347	+$395	+114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$230	+$125	+54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$280	−$280	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$223	−$221	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL	99¢	$742	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$355	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$230	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	45¢	$347	7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$223	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$280	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records