trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -33.7% | -40.0% | 25% | 25% | -19.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -44.0% | -49.4% | 25% | 25% | -40.7% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 32% | 32% | -28.2% |
| all | 30 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 43% | 40% | -16.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.9% | 40% | -16.5% |
| 10% | -31.2% | 37% | -24.5% |
| 15% | -37.9% | 30% | -31.8% |
| 20% | -43.9% | 27% | -38.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $11 | $9 | −$3 (-25%) |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $2 | $1 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 26 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 24 | $2 | +$3 | +165% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +45% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -80% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -83% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | May 30 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $7 | +$2 | +28% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $3 | +$2 | +84% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1 | +$2 | +176% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $3 | −$2 | -51% |
| Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 24 | $4 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? | Mar 31 | $5 | +$6 | +114% |
| Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in March? | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? | Mar 29 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026? | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? | Mar 29 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? | Mar 26 | $3 | +$4 | +118% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Mar 26 | $1 | +$1 | +76% |
| Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 26 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Mar 26 | $1 | +$1 | +126% |
| Will Trump say "N Word" in March? | Mar 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 11 | $1 | +$1 | +50% |
| Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? | Mar 07 | $3 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |