Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f2d…0b17 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-8%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -27.4% -34.3% 57% 38% -25.4%
≤30d 21 -27.4% -34.3% 57% 38% -25.4%
≤90d 21 -27.4% -34.3% 57% 38% -25.4%
all 21 -27.4% -34.3% 57% 38% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.3% 38% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -40.6% 19% -32.5%
15% -46.4% 10% -39.0%
20% -51.6% 5% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records