Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f2e…05a6 other 118 markets active 5h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,505 (+15%) realized +$3,549 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%42W / 28L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$13,768now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$99
14 days+$2,913
30 days+$3,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$3,024
sports 6% −$126
world 2% −$6
politics 1% −$24
crypto 1% −$45
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.9% +15.7% 73% 73% +6.9%
≤30d 53 +36.1% +23.1% 58% 57% +47.0%
≤90d 70 +30.9% +18.4% 60% 57% +27.5%
all 70 +30.9% +18.4% 60% 57% +27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.4% 57% +27.5%
10% ← realistic here +7.1% 53% +15.3%
15% -3.2% 46% +4.2%
20% -12.7% 37% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$68 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$13,768
Realized+$3,549
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses42 / 28
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions48
Markets (closed)70 / 118
History coverage128d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2,619 $2,911 +$292 (+11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,044 $1,687 −$357 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,602 $1,671 +$69 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 73¢ $1,398 $1,460 +$62 (+4%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,018 $1,009 −$9 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 70¢ $707 $663 −$44 (-6%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $717 $653 −$64 (-9%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $427 $536 +$109 (+26%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $377 $371 −$6 (-2%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $354 $344 −$10 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $290 $290 +$1 (+0%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $234 $256 +$22 (+9%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $227 $233 +$6 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $206 $199 −$7 (-3%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $175 $178 +$3 (+2%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $171 $174 +$3 (+2%)
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $233 $171 −$61 (-26%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 63¢ 46¢ $159 $116 −$42 (-27%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $135 $97 −$37 (-28%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $76 $88 +$12 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 42¢ $130 $85 −$45 (-35%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $73 +$18 (+34%)
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $65 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $42 $57 +$14 (+33%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $43 $55 +$11 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 +$30 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $68 −$35 -51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $120 +$78 +65%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $58 +$27 +46%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $32 +$18 +55%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $26 +$8 +29%
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +226%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $49 +$25 +52%
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $52 −$51 -100%
Paris: Chloe Paquet vs Maya Joint Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 09 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $203 +$46 +22%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,666 +$3,301 +198%
Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +192%
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $1 $0 +41%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $0 $0 +236%
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $0 +$1 +161%
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $0 $0 +183%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 06 $9 +$49 +539%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 02 $5 +$10 +217%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $164 +$29 +17%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $30 +$66 +220%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $50 +$224 +444%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $93 +$120 +129%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $61 +$48 +79%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $60 +$12 +19%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 27 $133 +$49 +37%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $108 +$78 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $73 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 5h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $60 14h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $126 14h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $134 14h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $617 14h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $391 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $483 22h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $7 23h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 25h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 25h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $9 27h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $45 27h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $1 35h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $223 35h
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $0 35h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $33 36h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 36h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 36h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 38h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $14 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $80 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $43 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,767.52 · official $13,767.53 (match) · 3177 history records