Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f2f…8e33 crypto 506 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%68W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,111
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-61.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -49.2% -54.0% 21% 21% -22.9%
≤30d 41 -54.8% -59.1% 17% 17% -46.9%
≤90d 506 -56.9% -61.0% 13% 13% -55.1%
all 506 -56.9% -61.0% 13% 13% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.0% 13% -55.1%
10% ← realistic here -64.8% 12% -59.4%
15% -68.2% 12% -63.3%
20% -71.3% 11% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses68 / 438
Open positions0
Markets (closed)506 / 506
History coverage84d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 506 Trades
no open positions (419 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$19 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 29 $14 −$10 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 29 $18 −$12 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 29 $10 +$23 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $17 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 28 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 28 $16 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 15 $17 +$22 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 12 $20 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2194 history records