Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f30…f8de
weather · 886 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,529 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,691 · open −$161
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$815
Realized+$2,691
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses291 / 454
Open positions54
Markets (closed)745 / 886
History coverage16d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day194.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 54 History 745 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,544
7 days−$661
14 days+$2,257
30 days+$2,691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $42 $80 +$38 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $25 $79 +$55 (+223%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $27 $60 +$33 (+122%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Yes 20¢ 98¢ $12 $59 +$47 (+391%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+163%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 46¢ 97¢ $18 $39 +$20 (+111%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 76¢ $16 $37 +$22 (+139%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $44 $34 −$10 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $6 $20 +$14 (+233%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 43¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $11 $14 +$2 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 42¢ 14¢ $34 $11 −$23 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 18? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 9? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 20? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 9? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 20? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 16? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 25? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 15? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 6? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 20? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 4? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$6,026
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 55m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 58m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 -28.2% -35.0% 28% 28% -17.2%
≤30d 745 +4.4% -5.5% 39% 39% +9.1%
≤90d 745 +4.4% -5.5% 39% 39% +9.1%
all 745 +4.4% -5.5% 39% 39% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover194.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 39% +9.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 38% -1.3%
15% -22.8% 37% -10.8%
20% -30.4% 37% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $815.29 · official $815.29 (match) · 3500 history records