Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f30…0961 world 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%45W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$19
other 19% +$3
politics 13% +$1
sports 11% +$4
crypto 5% −$2
economics 4% −$2
culture 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.2% 28% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 81 +7.3% -3.0% 33% 4% -9.7%
all 113 +4.6% -5.3% 40% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -14.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -22.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -30.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses45 / 68
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)113 / 116
History coverage471d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $146 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $73 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $146 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $86 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $162 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $72 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $76 −$4 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $165 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $76 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $105 −$3 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $72 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $237 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $83 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $25 −$12 -50%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $26 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $160 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $93 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $294 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $255 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $174 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $68 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $68 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $50 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $68 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $40 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $35 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $75 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $74 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $73 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $73 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $77 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $52 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $69 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $61 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $76 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $36 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $0.00 · 467 history records