Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3f34…ed6a sports 349 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,168 (-19%) realized −$15,125 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%155W / 574L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$911est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27,347
7 days−$27,227
14 days−$25,521
30 days−$16,926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$4,060
other 18% +$4,491
crypto 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-61.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 459 -89.7% -90.6% 4% 3% -93.5%
≤30d 550 -72.2% -74.8% 14% 13% -37.1%
≤90d 729 -57.2% -61.3% 21% 18% -27.0%
all 729 -57.2% -61.3% 21% 18% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.3% 18% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -65.0% 15% -34.0%
15% -68.4% 12% -40.4%
20% -71.5% 9% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$71 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$15,125
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses155 / 574
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$911
Open positions14
Markets (closed)729 / 349
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$234
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 729 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 52¢ 48¢ $195 $181 −$15 (-8%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Under 57¢ 96¢ $53 $90 +$37 (+70%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 100¢ $40 $84 +$44 (+111%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 33¢ 32¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 70¢ 68¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 68¢ 100¢ $24 $36 +$11 (+46%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 36¢ 100¢ $9 $24 +$15 (+174%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 24¢ 100¢ $6 $24 +$18 (+316%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Buvaysar Gadamauri 61¢ 100¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+63%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67¢ 52¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-23%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 81¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Estar Backs 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 4¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-94%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 36¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 76¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 47¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Jun 15 $975 −$975 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 49¢ $6 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 12¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 49¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 49¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $8 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 50¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $6 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 12¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 50¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 36¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 36¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $8 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 50¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $3 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 50¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $8 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 50¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 52¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 52¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 72¢ $9 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 72¢ $9 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.78 · official $598.78 (match) · 3500 history records