Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f35…9ea4
crypto · 1721 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$316 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$295 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$524
Realized+$295
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1121 / 584
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1705 / 1721
History coverage18d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day124.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 31 History 1705 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$359
7 days−$588
14 days+$351
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 69¢ 95¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+38%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 81¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 94¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+50%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+13%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 65¢ 73¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? No 64¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 73¢ 95¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? No 84¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 61¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 85¢ 79¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? No 72¢ 65¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$9 +252%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% +$626
other 5% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 936 -6.3% -15.2% 67% 39% -17.1%
≤30d 1705 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 48% -7.5%
≤90d 1705 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 48% -7.5%
all 1705 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 48% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 48% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 38% -16.4%
15% -26.3% 31% -24.5%
20% -33.5% 23% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.18 · official $523.45 (match) · 3500 history records