Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f35…09a6 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$25
other 36% $0
crypto 25% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.2% -16.1% 64% 55% -24.6%
≤30d 11 -7.2% -16.1% 64% 55% -24.6%
≤90d 11 -7.2% -16.1% 64% 55% -24.6%
all 11 -7.2% -16.1% 64% 55% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 55% -24.6%
10% -24.1% 27% -31.8%
15% -31.4% 27% -38.4%
20% -38.2% 27% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$32 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$33 -92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$16 +54%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $35 −$25 -70%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $48 +$8 +17%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +58%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 +$28 +118%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 86¢ $47 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 28h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.29 · official $18.29 (match) · 24 history records