Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3f3b…1d77 politics 156 markets active 5h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$85,322 (-29%) realized −$84,359 · open −$963
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%44W / 148L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,907per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$106,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62,528
7 days−$62,528
14 days−$62,786
30 days−$61,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% +$19,066
other 27% −$11,136
crypto 17% −$839
sports 9% +$1,186
economics 7% +$8,520
tech 7% +$1,393
culture 5% −$520
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -89.9% -90.8% 3% 2% -79.9%
≤30d 107 -76.1% -78.4% 6% 4% -75.4%
≤90d 120 -44.7% -50.0% 12% 10% -50.4%
all 192 -28.0% -34.9% 23% 15% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 15% -29.4%
10% -41.1% 11% -36.1%
15% ← realistic here -46.8% 8% -42.3%
20% -52.0% 7% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,029) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +42% → late -98% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,239 vs −$700 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$106,505
Realized−$84,359
Unrealized−$963
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses44 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions66
Markets (closed)192 / 156
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$1,907
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 74¢ 76¢ $15,469 $15,989 +$520 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $12,800 $13,725 +$925 (+7%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $9,280 $9,955 +$675 (+7%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $8,437 $8,950 +$513 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 29¢ 38¢ $5,852 $7,749 +$1,897 (+32%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 58¢ $5,375 $6,679 +$1,304 (+24%)
Negative GDP growth in 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $5,783 $6,289 +$506 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 56¢ $4,633 $4,519 −$114 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 60¢ $2,933 $3,567 +$634 (+22%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 87¢ 88¢ $3,477 $3,540 +$63 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $2,739 $3,502 +$763 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 24¢ $3,105 $2,160 −$945 (-30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 40¢ $2,275 $2,025 −$250 (-11%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $2,324 $1,800 −$524 (-23%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 14¢ $3,153 $1,224 −$1,929 (-61%)
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $938 $1,044 +$106 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $1,105 $992 −$113 (-10%)
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $923 $953 +$31 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $1,294 $873 −$422 (-33%)
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $806 $837 +$31 (+4%)
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $778 $835 +$56 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $907 $816 −$90 (-10%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $641 $810 +$169 (+26%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $750 $805 +$55 (+7%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 77¢ 82¢ $748 $804 +$56 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Jun 29 $4,131 −$4,216 -102%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 29 $2,216 −$2,306 -104%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Jun 29 $9 −$15 -163%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 29 $1,304 −$1,304 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 29 $933 −$424 -46%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after February 2026 Jun 29 $94 −$94 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 29 $208 −$214 -103%
Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album f Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $1,712 −$1,690 -99%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the January mee Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 25% and 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayo Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will RFK end HPV vaccine recommendation in 2025? Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 29 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jun 29 $398 −$406 -102%
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025? Jun 29 $463 −$614 -133%
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 20 Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 29 $1,336 −$1,363 -102%
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? Jun 29 $3,085 −$7,553 -245%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $390 −$441 -113%
Will Donald Trump attend Dick Cheney's funeral? Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025? Jun 29 $4 −$1 -37%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025? Jun 29 $318 −$545 -171%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 29 $48 −$114 -238%
Will Lady Gaga win 1 Grammy? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 29 $692 −$689 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $19 −$14 -71%
Will Kamala Harris attend Dick Cheney's funeral? Jun 29 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 29 $46 −$50 -107%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 29 $359 −$380 -106%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 29 $4,322 −$4,586 -106%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 29 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Jun 29 $3 −$10 -388%
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 29 $637 −$641 -101%
Will Tyler Robinson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jun 29 $12,000 −$12,000 -100%
Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 29 $1,143 −$1,189 -104%
Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER by Billie Eilish be the 2nd most streamed song Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Jun 29 $939 −$967 -103%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Jun 29 $620 −$615 -99%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 29 $534 −$534 -100%
Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $41 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 5h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 5h
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $265 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $720 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 12h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 13h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $198 18h
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 19h
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 19h
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 19h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 24h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $26 26h
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 30h
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? SELL No 85¢ $10 30h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 34h
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? SELL No 85¢ $15 34h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY No 74¢ $7 35h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 36h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 43h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $226 45h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $43 45h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 23¢ $28 45h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY No 74¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106,505.44 · official $106,501.55 (match) · 3500 history records