Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f41…3769 sports 60 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$983 (+19%) realized +$942 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,323
other 36% −$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +30.7% +18.2% 45% 43% +14.5%
≤30d 49 +30.7% +18.2% 45% 43% +14.5%
≤90d 49 +30.7% +18.2% 45% 43% +14.5%
all 49 +30.7% +18.2% 45% 43% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.2% 43% +14.5%
10% +6.9% 41% +3.5%
15% -3.4% 41% -6.5%
20% -12.9% 39% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$60 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$877
Realized+$942
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 60
History coverage6d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $229 $260 +$31 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $160 $228 +$68 (+43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $250 $227 −$23 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $178 $143 −$35 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +158%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 +$37 +91%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$30 +99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $126 +$168 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +291%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $183 +$85 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $143 +$26 +18%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- Jun 16 $15 +$92 +599%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$2 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $304 −$171 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $215 −$215 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +473%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$19 -61%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$42 +276%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$227 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $632 +$1,154 +183%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$213 +140%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $202 +$106 +53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 −$12 -12%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 +$102 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $30 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 54¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $15 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $26 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 38¢ $31 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $75 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 33h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $30 34h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $71 34h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $197 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 32¢ $71 36h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $102 37h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $81 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 43h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $877.03 · official $877.03 (match) · 145 history records