Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f41…5ffc
sports · 139 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,919 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,152 · open −$16,479
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56,522
Realized+$11,152
Unrealized−$16,479
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses77 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,756
Open positions19
Markets (closed)123 / 139
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3,985
Trades / day101.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 19 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,552
7 days+$10,353
14 days+$11,152
30 days+$11,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $26,761 $41,077 +$14,317 (+53%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $26,761 $12,444 −$14,317 (-53%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Daria Snigur 53¢ 56¢ $1,004 $1,051 +$47 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 48¢ 44¢ $462 $419 −$43 (-9%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster 32¢ 34¢ $380 $398 +$18 (+5%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 55¢ $377 $380 +$3 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $339 $347 +$8 (+2%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Hanwha Life Esports 85¢ 100¢ $176 $207 +$31 (+18%)
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) T1 86¢ 100¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+16%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 46¢ 100¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+117%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 0¢ 97¢ $0 $17 +$17 (+0%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 0¢ 90¢ $0 $11 +$11 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 0¢ 80¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Verdant 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Hanwha Life Esports 21¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+376%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 23¢ 0¢ $1,225 $3 −$1,223 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 49¢ 0¢ $544 $1 −$544 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 45¢ 0¢ $440 $0 −$440 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 5¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Hanwha Life Esports 7¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) T1 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) PARIVISION 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) TheMongolz 54¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Under 3.5 0¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $830 +$800 +96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,533 +$1,800 +117%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1,833 +$425 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,700 +$522 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $322 −$322 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $122 +$169 +138%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,230 +$1,770 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $588 −$588 -100%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $17 +$14 +79%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$35 +70%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Duckworth (+1.5) Jun 11 $955 +$993 +104%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 11 $9 +$8 +93%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $3,066 +$331 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $285 −$285 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$5 +100%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$3 +104%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $83 +$88 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $191 +$98 +52%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3,255 +$2,333 +72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $140 −$139 -99%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $704 +$22 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,318 −$2,278 -98%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 09 $2 +$6 +400%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 +$12 +119%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $430 +$570 +132%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $2,549 −$1,146 -45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,926 +$47 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $136 +$49 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $130 +$130 +100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 08 $278 −$278 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $270 $0 -0%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $366 +$189 +52%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $25,555 +$377 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $52 +$221 +426%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $57,397 +$691 +1%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $35,555 +$16 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $331 +$169 +51%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 07 $134 +$10 +7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $819 +$344 +42%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $40 +$49 +122%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $73,343 −$566 -1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $727 +$397 +55%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6,335 +$1,517 +24%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10,711 +$2,303 +22%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $641 +$141 +22%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $25,556 +$360 +1%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $4,618 +$1,196 +26%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $4,903 +$43 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% +$3,794
politics 36% −$14,317
other 4% +$5,199
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $2 0m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery SELL Daria Snigur 55¢ $50 0m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery SELL Daria Snigur 55¢ $21 2m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery SELL Daria Snigur 55¢ $10 2m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery SELL Daria Snigur 55¢ $99 3m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 3m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 53¢ $1,178 4m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $19 5m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $7 7m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 7m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $11 7m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $2 9m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $4 9m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 11m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $92 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $4 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $2 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $29 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $96 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $74 12m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $2 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $92 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $74 12m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 12m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $12 13m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $2 14m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $11 14m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 16m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +27.9% +15.8% 63% 46% -7.4%
≤30d 123 +27.4% +15.2% 63% 45% -7.3%
≤90d 123 +27.4% +15.2% 63% 45% -7.3%
all 123 +27.4% +15.2% 63% 45% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover101.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.2% 45% -7.3%
10% +4.2% 42% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -5.8% 35% -24.3%
20% -15.1% 29% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,521.74 · official $56,521.75 (match) · 1377 history records