Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f41…5c18 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$3
other 34% +$1
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -1.5% -10.9% 23% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 21% 0% -10.3%
all 60 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage468d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Williams have the second highest Constructor score at the 2025 Mo May 24 $1 $0 -32%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 21 $6 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $17 $0 +3%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 17 $2 $0 -17%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3 May 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 9–16? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the SEC have the most first round players drafted? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $41 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $41 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $41 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $41 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $17 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $28 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records